Challenges in Predicting a Declining Product: Case Study of a Telecommunications Product

It is extremely difficult to predict a declining product such as Interstate Minutes of Usage (MOU) in the telecommunications industry. This article shows how autoregressive EGRACH-M technique, combined with expert judgment, can significantly improve the forecast of such products. The case study is used to demonstrate it. VICTOR GLASS | Dr. Glass holds the position of Director of Demand Forecasting and Rate Development at Nation Exchange Carrier Association (NECA). He is currently responsible for forecasting demand and setting switched and special rates for more than 1,100 telephone companies. He is the lead author of NECA s “Last Mile, “Middle Mile, and “Packet Train broadband studies. He holds an MBA in Marketing and Finance, and a Ph.D. in Economics from Columbia University YUN ZHENG | Dr. Zheng is the Manager of Special Access Forecasting and Demand Assurance at Nation Exchange Carrier Association (NECA). Her responsibilities include forecasting special access revenue and switched minutes for NECA membership companies, providing demand relevant documentations in FCC rate filings, and tracking NECAs special access revenue and switched minutes forecasting performance. ...