Convergence to Global Stagnation

I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK Convergence to Global Stagnation By Evangelos Otto Simos 36 Copyright © 2013 Journal of Business Forecasting | All Rights Reserved | Winter 2012-2013 The baseline forecast incorporates major findings of the World Economic Survey conducted by the German Ifo Institute and the Paris-based International Chamber of Commerce, which was conducted in the third quarter of 2012. About 1,200 executives from 124 countries have indicated that the world’s economic climate fell in the fourth quarter of 2012 driven by less favorable assessments about both the current and future economic situation. The major findings of the fourth quarter’s survey are as follows: • Worldwide, executives evaluated the current economic situation, fourth quarter of 2012, to be below satisfactory levels, led by low levels on capital expenditures. They found economic activity in their countries to be worse than in the fourth quarter of 2011. Most important, regarding the future, executives expect economic conditions in the first quarter of 2013 to be slightly above those prevailing in the fourth quarter of 2012, but at a level consistent with stagnant economy. • On a regional ...