Delphi Improves Sales Forecasts: Malaysia's Electronic Companies' Experience

DELPHI IMPROVES SALES FORECASTS: MALAYSIA’S ELECTRONIC COMPANIES’ EXPERIENCE By Zuhaimy Haji Ismail and Maizah Hura Ahamad Forecasts based on a group of forecasts are better than forecasts of a single forecaster, particularly where no formal forecasting process exists … coordinator should approach the panelists to make sure that the points they have made are clear and understandable … forecasts tend to converge as we move from one round to the next. Delphi is one of the judgmental models where forecast is based on the input received from various experts in the area. The underlying assumption is that a group of experts have more knowledge and information than any one individual. As such, the forecasts based on the input of multiple experts will be better than that of an individual forecaster. The model was originally developed by Helmer and Rescher in the early 1950s as part of an Air Force sponsored research project, which was completed by The Rand Corporation. Since then many businesses have used it in their forecasting efforts. In this study, we evaluate the forecasts of five electronic companies located in Malaysia to determine whether Delphi generated forecasts provide ...