Forecasting New Products by Structured Analogy

ForecaStinG neW ProdUctS By StrUctUred analoGy By Michael Gilliland and Sam Guseman ew product forecasting (NPF)nis a recurrent challenge for consumer goods manufacturers and retailers. There are many kinds of NPF situations these organizations can encounter: (1) New to the world products (entirely new types of products), (2) new markets for existing products (such as expanding a regional brand nationwide or globally), and (3) refinements of existing products (such as “new and improved” versions, or package changes). aPProacheS to neW ProdUct ForecaStinG may have no special insight into future customer behavior, or have any particular forecasting skills. This process is very time consuming, taking away effort that might better be spent building relationships with customers and actually selling. Also, the sales force may purposely bias their forecasts high (to build more inventory) or low (to minimize sales quotas). Delphi Method. A structured formal process for gathering forecasts and building a consensus. Participants are surveyed, the results are shared (anonymously), and participants are allowed to make adjustments based on the forecasts of their peers. The process ...