Forecasting new products With Anon-cumul ative Logistic Growth Model: Acase Study of modem Technology

FORECASTING NEW PRODUCTS WITH A NONCUMULATIVE LOGISTIC GROWTH MODEL: A CASE STUDY OF MODEM TECHNOLOGY By John F. Kros Shows why in forecasting the noncumulative logistic growth model provides more insight to managers than the cumulative logistic growth model …uses modem technology to demonstrate the forecasting process ... market penetration of a given technology is often linearly related to the market penetration of its successive technology. Companies have long been concerned about new product development and the life cycle of these products. Since many products do not sell at constant levels throughout their lives, product life cycles must be considered in developing their sales forecasts. Innovation diffusion models have been successfully employed to investigate the rate at which goods and services pass through the product life cycle. This research investigates innovation diffusion models and their relation to the Product Life Cycle (PLC). The model is developed and then tested using modem sales from 1994-2004. It uses data of successive generation of modem innovation, from 14.4k, 28.8k, 56k, to broadband. Companies always look for opportunities for successful launching ...