From a Soft Patch to Recession for Industrial Countries

Copyright © 2013 Journal of Business Forecasting | All Rights Reserved | Spring 2013 35 institutional and regulatory environment, the effectiveness of the policies, and the response of business and consumers to policy initiatives. In our summary evaluation of the global economic situation last quarter, we mentioned that the “Euro Area is in recession and the U.S. economy is growing at decelerating rates with a high probability of entering a recession at the end of 2012 or the beginning of 2013… [in addition a] weakening of growth has surfaced in many emerging market economies reflecting both external INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK Dr. Simos is Director of Forecasting at e-forecasting.com, a division of Infometrica’s Data Center, 65 Newmarket Road, Durham, NH 03824, U.S.A., www.infometrica.com, eosimos@e-forecasting.com. This report does not purport to be a complete description of global economic conditions and financial markets. Neither the Journal nor Infometrica, Inc. guarantee the accuracy of the projections, nor do they warrant in any way that the use of information or data appearing herein will enhance operational or investment performance of individuals or companies ...