How To Forecast The Demand Of A New Drug In The Pharmaceutical Industry

HOW TO FORECAST THE DEMAND OF A NEW DRUG IN THE PHARMACEUTICAL INDUSTRY By Michael Latta Explains how marketing research can be used effectively in fore cast ing a new drug ... the Gompertz curve allows the forecaster to structure a new drug forecasting model that meets his/her market profi le … using market data gathered directly from a target market concerning the expected use of an innovative drug reduces uncertainty in Gompertz forecasting. T T he most difficult task in forecasting is forecasting the demand of a new product because it has no history. The problem becomes even more complex when it comes to the pharmaceutical industry. At the discovery of a new chemical entity (NCE), a patent is obtained that is good for 20 years. However, it takes five years, on average, for a new drug to pass through clinical trials, U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approval, and finally distribution and launch to become available to physicians to prescribe. Furthermore, in the pharmaceutical industry, there is no analog for NCEs that can be used as a basis of forecasting. Thus, there is a need for a structured, evidenced- based approach to forecasting demand for drug innovations that ...