Identifying The New Biases In Newproduct Foreacsting

IDentIfyInG the BIases In new ProDUCt foreCastInG By Kenneth B. Kahn Describes not only biases commonly found in new product forecasting but also how to handle them … to get an approval of a new product, a new product manager tends to over-estimate its forecast … to overcome biases, managers should put in place a new product forecasting process that offers transparency of the new product forecast, underlying assumptions as well as of forecasts of outside experts. A A ny new product forecast should be developed with a keen eye towards realism and presented to management regardless of the expected outcome. Yet, this seldom happens. Inherent in most if not all companies are multiple biases that impinge on the new product forecasting endeavors that cause unnecessary errors. The chance of a new product to be “on target” will increase if there is a process in place that systematically identifies biases and then mitigates them. This article describes a sample of prevalent biases affecting new product forecasting in an effort to expose them. It is very unlikely that the forecast of a new product will be completely free from all biases because its forecasts are very much based ...