Integrating Market Response Models In Sales Forecasting

INTEGRATING MARKET RESPONSE MODELS IN SALES FORECASTING Most practitioners believe their primary responsibility as a forecaster is to provide senior management with accurate point estimates of the future. This is a misconception. The chances of management, or anyone for that matter, using your forecasts at face value is almost zero. At best, we can only hope to influence the sales forecast. In fact, by providing management with only accurate point estimates forecasters are doing a disservice to their company. Particularly, if the product (s) they are forecasting appear to be in a state of decline. As forecasters it is our responsibility to provide senior management with “actionable decision support analysis” influencing policy changes that result in improved profitability and growth. In other words, we need to identify and establish relationships for the elements that drive demand so management can optimize those factors to expand the business. Accurate point estimates are a result of in-depth causal analysis that measure the affects of the marketing mix on retail sell through on shelf. Using retail syndicated scanner data provided by A.C. Nielsen or Information Resources, ...