International Economic Outlook

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Evangelos Otto Simos NORTH AMERICA AND EUROPE TIP TO A MINI-SLOWDOWN I. GLOBAL ASSESSMENT AND OUTLOOK Following incredible growth performance during the expansionary phase of the global business cycle, major economies led by the United States appear to have entered uneven slowing down patterns from their cyclical peaks reached in the fall of 2007. The latest evidence from quarterly national accounts suggests that economic growth continued to be strong in the third quarter of 2007. The combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)—the 30 richest economies in the world—was estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2.9 percent from a year ago, compared with 2.5 percent in the second quarter of 2007. On a year-over-year basis, in the third quarter of 2007 real output expanded by 2.8 percent in the United States and by 2.9 percent in the 27-country European Union. The two major European economies of the United Kingdom and Germany posted solid gains in output growth of 3.3 and 2.5 percent, respectively. Recent economic activity indicators from emerging Asia, an important driver ...