International Economic Outlook

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Evangelos Otto Simos GLOBAL RECOvERy TOwARdS TRENd IN 2009 I. Global assessment and outlook In response to financial turbulences that originated in the United States, global economic growth has begun to moderate. Following strong growth in the first three quarters of 2007, preliminary data on the last quarter combined with the January 2008 forward-looking monthly indicators—which track economic conditions nine months in advance—point to an economic slowdown in the industrial countries.The latest evidence from quarterly national accounts suggests that economic growth moderated in the fourth quarter of 2007. The combined output of the member countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)—the 30 richest economies in the world—was estimated to have grown at an annual rate of 2.0 percent from the previous quarter, compared with 3.6 percent in the third quarter of 2007. In the fourth quarter of 2007, real output expanded by 0.8 percent in the United States and by 2.0 percent in the 27-country European Union. The two major European economies of France and Germany both posted weak gains in output growth ...