International Economic Outlook

INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Evangelos Otto Simos, Ph.D. DESyNChRONIzED GLOBAL RECOvERy UNDER NEw LEADERShIP I. Global assessment and outlook Despite disappointing performance in a few industrial countries in the second quarter of 2009, several countries reached the low point of their business cycle either in the fourth quarter of last year or in the first quarter of this year, providing evidence of leveling out of the global recession. Global economic and financial conditions remain generally encouraging and the worldwide economic recovery is expected to continue at a satisfactory pace in the second half of the year. Even though uncertainty in the financial and economic environment has been reduced from last year’s enormous levels, which brought the global economy to a standstill, there are several areas where policy concerns still remain unusually high and cloud the global business outlook. The timing, scope, degree, and effectiveness of last year’s massive fiscal and monetary interventions in the United States, Europe, China, and several other nations, combined with asymmetrical reaction of consumers and businesses among countries, have given rise to desynchronization ...