Odyssey Of A Forecaster

ODYSSEY OF A FORECASTER By Rick Bolton, Project Leader, Business Data Services A few years ago, in my first few weeks at a new company, I was asked to join about a dozen people ranging from analysts to vice presidents at a meeting where the company’s forecasting function was to be discussed. Although I didn’t at the time have any formal responsibility for forecasting, I was invited since several of the participants knew that my background included heavy involvement in forecasting at my previous positions. Being a newcomer, I was eager to witness how these key individuals viewed the role of forecasting. I was prepared to hear how the different departments contributed, how consensus was reached, if it was reached at all, and what methods were used. I was naturally certain I would hear the usual horror stories about large forecast errors and their devastating effect on the company’s performance. Even though I felt that I had more experience in the discipline of forecasting than most of the attendees, I made a commitment to myself not to speak until the very end and to try to keep good notes. The result was what I had suspected for a very long time. As I tried to write down ...