The Hard And Soft Sides Of New Product Forecasting

the harD anD Soft SIDeS of new ProDUCt foreCaStIng By Kenneth B. Kahn ithout question, new product wforecasting is a challenging, error-prone endeavor due, in part, to limited data and time resources. Complicating efforts is the tendency of published literature to emphasize statistically sophisticated approaches for new product forecasting when judgmental approaches often play a more predominant role. And little, if any, formal training on new product forecasting is given to company personnel. Though these issues persist, new product forecasting cannot be simply avoided or ignored because new product forecasts underlie key decisions during product development and launch processes. To aid in understanding the new product forecasting endeavor, this article offers a simple characterization portraying new product forecasting across the three dimensions of analytics, behavior, and strategy. These three dimensions address “hard” and “soft” issues persistent in the new product forecasting endeavor. The aim is to draw attention to the facts that new product forecasting is a multidimensional endeavor and that by addressing both “hard” and “soft” issues, a more robust, ...