The Nation’s Economic Outlook

THE NATION’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Jack Malehorn THE NATION’S ECONOMY…SLOW AND DELIBERATE T T he U.S. economy seems poised on the edge of a deep and dangerous precipice where the slightest dis turbance could push it off the ledge. At least that is the assessment offered by Nigel Gault of Global Insight. For the Consensus overall, the Outlook is a little more sanguine. Quarter over quarter fore casts, i.e., from 1st quarter 2008 to the end of the year, the Consensus is predicting subdued growth in real GDP; i.e., under 2%. It is between those two end points where Global Insight weighs in on the state of the economy. In fact, Global In sight believes that the 4th quarter growth will slow to zero with the chance of slipping into a recession beginning in the New Year. Factors contributing to this dismal forecast include the recently reignited credit crunch surrounding sub-par mortgage rates pushing housing into the doldrums, coupled with oil prices near $100 per barrel, dragging the consumer sector down with it. Minus the consumer, Global Insight believes that non-residential investment will contract sharply, furthering the downslide. In fact, the only real positive is export ...