The Nation’s Economic Outlook

THE NATION’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Jack Malehorn RECOVERY IMMINENT … PACE OF RECOVERY IN QUESTION The Consensus Outlook’s forecast, which extends out over four quarters to midyear 2010, is positive, albeit subdued. Undoubtedly, the majority of economists believe that recovery is underway; however, there is a concern with regard to the pace of economic growth. Across the board, most measures of economic activity have picked up; still, there is clear absence of a major driving force compelling the economy forward. For greater insight, we turn to Dr. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s Robinson College of Business. Dr. Dhawan cites tech investment growth and new construction activity as necessary but missing ingredients for a sustained recovery. As such, the Consensus calls for growth in real GDP at a marginal rate of 1.5 percent. In turn, PDI and PCE are expected to grow near a 2-percent rate, far less than what would generally be expected in a recovery period following a downturn of the length and magnitude experienced. HOUSEHOLDS If the above analysis seems pensive, then the major reason has to be attributed to the absence ...