The Nation’s Economic Outlook

THE NATION’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Jack Malehorn BET ON THE TORTOISE—THE U.S. ECONOMY IN 2007 This quarterly examination of the nation’s economic consensus in the Journal of Business Forecasting parallels the story of the “tortoise and the hare.” Lacking its earlier vitality, the economy is characterized as exhibiting positive, almost methodical, and carefully orchestrated growth throughout the year. And with the present de-emphasis on prior inflationary concerns, this economic scenario is both palatable and appreciated. Examining the consensus allows an assessment of the underlying belief that the current economic expansion will continue undeterred, escaping any disastrous unforeseen calamity. One can easily become almost giddy thinking of an economic cycle exhibiting these characteristics for so long in our lifetime. The key economic indicators, which we see in this survey, paint a picture of a solid yet subdued economy plodding along much the same way the tortoise does in the race with the hare. Here, it is a safe bet to put your money on the tortoise. Real GDP is projected to grow at roughly less than 2%. Actual Personal Disposable Income and Personal Consumption ...