The Nation’s Economic Outlook

THE NATION’S ECONOMIC OUTLOOK By Jack Malehorn THE U.S. NATIONAL ECONOMY…SLOW BUT SUSTAINED GROWTH J J ust a quarter into the New Year a significant and intense state of nervousness has pervaded expectations regarding the economy, which inundated many analysts’ thoughts about the sustainability of the current expansion. True, many symptoms support this condition of trepidation including but not limited to sensitivity in financial markets following the profound correction realized in most major global stock markets and the rapid run-up in oil prices at the gas pumps. Still, the Consensus Outlook calls for slower but sustained economic growth lasting well into next year. CONSUMERS Real GDP is projected to rise at 2%, mitigating any real concern about inflation. Nominal Personal Disposable Income is forecast at roughly 4%, certainly a tolerable rate. Finally, Personal Consumption Expenditures (current dollars) are expected to increase at 3.5%, again well within reason for those closely attuned to inflationary pre cursors. As a result, the other consumer specific measures are quietly contained. Unemployment is expected to rise during the 4th quarter, though by a small margin. ...