The U.S. Economy… Stuck in Neutral

From all indications (both quantitative such as consensus economic variables included in the forecast tables and qualitative perspectives such as surveys of consumer confidence and business leader’s confidence), the U.S. economy appears to be stuck in neutral. Nowhere in the attached tables of forecasts is there any indication of a return to a recessionary state. Nonetheless, spirit of noncommittal prevails. So, the good news may be that we are not backsliding into a downturn yet; the bad news appears to be that we definitely are not going to be growing much anytime soon. Ray Perryman of the Perryman Group summed it up nicely with a comment attached to his forecasts, which cites an air of caution. That caution can be attributed to a whole host of factors including: Concerns over Europe, the looming domestic fiscal cliff, tension in oil-producing regions, a marked slowdown in the Chinese economy, and, of course, the upcoming election. The difficulty with this assessment is that there appears to be little relief in sight or even across an extended view over the horizon. Rajeev Dhawan, Director of the Economic Forecasting Center at Georgia State University’s J. Mack Robinson ...