We should have the same denominator, which is actual, whether we measure forecast error or bias. Otherwise, we will be looking at the forecast error from one perspective, and bias from another. We use actual as a denominator in measuring forecast accuracy because we want to see how the forecast deviates from the actual, not how the actual deviates from the forecast. The same is true with bias.

From Issue: Supply Chain Disruptions: Causes, Impacts, and Mitigation Strategies
(Fall 2015)

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Answers to Your Demand Planning and Forecasting Questions