Forecasting Covid 19 Cases and Deaths with the S Curve Model

Forecasting the number of cases and deaths from Coronavirus is challenging because it is new, meaning we don’t have historical data or analog viruses to work with. Therefore, traditional forecasting models and newer cause-and-effect models won’t work. The “S” curve model, the model often used in business to forecast demand for new products, seems to be most appropriate for this kind of forecasting. Here I show how this model works and provide forecasts for both Covid-19 cases and deaths in the USA and New York State. Consistency in the patterns of total cases and deaths gives us confidence in the numbers generated by this model.