Pharmaceutical Forecasting Model Simulation Guidelines

PHARMACEUTICAL FORECASTING MODEL SIMULATION GUIDELINES By John E. Triantis and Hu Song Describes in simple terms how the statistical technique known as “simulations” can identify and determine the sources of risk in a new product introduction in the pharmaceutical industry ... simulation brings different parties together ... gives a list of simulation software available in the market and their capability. S S imulation is a statistical technique for understanding the range and certainty of outcomes of a variable due to variations in the components of the process that generates the outcome. Simulations ordinarily involve assessing the impact of changes in model parameters, but sometimes values of variables that drive another variable also need to be simulated. For demand forecasting applications (shortterm— six to 18 months; long-term strategic forecasting or licensing—two years to 25 years), simulations involve changes in the parameters of events affecting the forecasted number of patients and sales. The purpose of performing simulations is to get a sense of where risk originates and how much risk is involved in the forecast. In other words, simulations increase ...