Strategic Planning Under Uncertainty: Long-Term ‘Muddling Through’

This article deals with a strategic planning approach first developed during the MIT Supply Chain 2020 Project. It is deals with long-term planning under uncertainty, in contrast to risk. The business process begins with developing uncertain futures that are likely to occur without the probabilities of their occurrences. A Scenario Planning Decision-Making Framework is introduced for making decisions and updating plans over time as the future unfolds. I discuss how, by assembling data over time, planning becomes under risk as the future possibilities become estimable; and how ‘muddling through’ can also be applied to tactical and operational Quick-Response planning under uncertainties, such as those due to natural disasters.