The Best and the Worst Forecasting Year

This column discusses a dark period during my five-year tenure of revenue forecasting for a service division of a computer manufacturer. It was a year in which revenues started to take a turn for the worse— going from historic double-digit percentage growth to flat revenue. While the company environment became awkward, unsettling, and politicized, I survived, and even thrived, after it was all over. Some lessons I learned are discussed here; they might prove useful for today’s business forecasting managers. LARRY LAPIDE | Dr. Lapide is a Lecturer at the University of Massachusetts, Boston and an MIT Research Affiliate. He has extensive experience in industry, consulting, business research, and academia as well as a broad range of forecasting, planning, and supply chain experiences. He was an industry forecaster for many years, led supply chain consulting projects for clients across a variety of industries, and has researched supply chain and forecasting software as an analyst. He is the recipient of the 2012 inaugural Lifetime Achievement in Business Forecasting & Planning Award from the IBF. He welcomes comments on his columns at llapide@mit.edu. (This is an ongoing column in ...