The U. S. economy has surpassed the Fed’s 4.5 percent natural rate of unemployment since March of 2017 and stands at 3.9 percent in August with a modest rise in inflation expectations.

From Issue: Demand Forecasting in the Cloud: Modern Computing Meets the Forecasting Discipline
(Fall 2018)

The Economy Defies Conventional Wisdom: Impressive Output, Employment, and Long-Awaited Productivity Growth
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