The Forecast-Centric Enterprise

THE FORECAST-CENTRIC ENTERPRISE By Illie Csorba Forecasts affect all functions, which in turn affect forecasts ... if all the forecasts are tied to the budget, all the departments will be in sync at the budget level, but not necessarily at the product level ... most of the problems stem from poor communication among various departments. A A t some time, all professional business forecasters have experienced the following “typical” Monday morning—beginning with a call from the Fulfi llment Manager. “What’s up with this order for 10,000 A15s for ABC Distributing? That’s more than our monthly average demand. From what I see, there is no history to support this demand. You can’t even forecast rain when you’re standing in a thunderstorm! What am I supposed to do now? Should I miss a shipment to this new customer or not ship to the rest of our customers for a month?” What a way to start a Monday. Let me have a cup of coffee and figure out what is the root cause of this problem. Who could be responsible for this “unforecasted” demand? I will call the Sales Manager. “Hi Larry, I just found out we have a new order for 10,000 A15s from a new customer, ...