Using A Simple Mantra For Reviewing The Demand Plan

USiNG a SiMPle MaNtra For reviewiNG tHe DeMaND PlaN By Patrick Bower It is challenging to gain insight in the reams of data provided at the consensus meeting … a simple mantra of asking questions about Level-Trend-Seasonality-Change can give you what you need to know … it is not unusual to find forecasts that are mostly aspirational, sandbagged, or overly unrealistic. D D emand planning data comes from a multitude of sources: Point of sale, econometrics, market research, statistical forecasts, error reporting, customer forecasts, sales estimates, promotional plans, media plans, historical demand patterns and so on. Unfortunately, the end result of so many inputs is often data overload in the demand planning process. Faced with the daunting task of separating the valuable data from the insignificant, many demand planners and consensus groups fall back on overly simplistic planning approaches to deal with the glut of information. It is no surprise that most forecasts have bias. In fact, it is almost normal to find demand plans that are overly aspirational and unrealistic, in part, because a multitude of inputs have been layered on top of each other instead of being discerned for ...