What Informal Economies Can Teach Us About Early Warnings

In this article I present a case for using real-time search spikes and other unstructured data as early indicators of operational risk. It highlights how terms like “fuel long queue” or “black market dollar rate” can precede formal disruptions in supply and demand. I introduce a tool under development designed to translate publicly available data into proactive disruption alerts, especially for users in low-data or informal environments. By mapping search trends to operational risks like fuel shortages, border closures, or protests, the tool offers a practical, accessible alternative to traditional reactive ...