The Forecaster’s Predicament: Communicating Uncertainty Effectively

Fall 2021

Journal of Business Forecasting Volume 40 | Issue 3 | Fall 2021

As Demand Planners, we know that uncertainty is an intrinsic part of every forecast. We also know that when we communicate that uncertainty, our forecasts may be less likely to be trusted and used in the organization. How then do we communicate an honest and realistic picture of demand that also gains the confidence of our colleagues? In this article Mike Gilliland discusses how to get round this problem by using Prediction Intervals, an approach that communicates both a forecast range and its likelihood of occurring, as well different visual ways to present probability.

Also in this issue, Daniel Fitzpatrick argues that no, AI isn't coming for your demand planning job and that when it comes to big data and advanced analytics, human beings are critical to ensuring the inputs and outputs make sense. Shimon Gowda presents a no-nonsense approach to optimizing network distribution design, and leading Japanese academic and author Yudai Yamguchi reveals his heuristic model for new product forecasting - and much more from some of the world’s leading planning professionals.

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