Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Workshop - 3 Hours (Gold Package/IBF Members Only)
Virtual Best Practices Conference: Business Planning, Forecasting & S&OP/ IBP
Fundamentals of Demand Planning & Forecasting Workshop - 3 Hours (Gold Package/IBF Members Only)

ROLE OF FORECASTING IN THE ORGANIZATION

  • Benefits and its impact on supply chain, management decisions, financial plans
  • Responsibilities/Accountability
  • Consensus development and management support
  • Relationship to other decision and planning processes
  • Cross-function participation and involvement

DATA MANAGEMENT AND DATA CLEANING

  • Data identification and definition
  • Structure of time series data
  • Data collection and analysis
  • Identifying and adjusting for anomalies

FORECAST ERROR MEASUREMENT

  • Importance of error measurement and analysis
  • Sources and remediation of error
  • Interpretation and application of error metrics
  • Mean Absolute % Error (MAPE)
  • Weighted Mean Absolute % Error (WMAPE)
  • Error analysis and cost of error)

HOW TO FORECAST WITH TIMES SERIES MODELS – THE MOST WIDELY USED METHOD OF FORECASTING

  • Importance of pattern identification
  • Time series model development
  • When to use time series models
  • Advantages and disadvantages of time series
  • Event adjustments and when to use
  • Underlying assumptions
  • Widely used time series methods – averages, naive model, exponential smoothing, decomposition, trend, seasonal, and other time series methods

REGRESSION ANALYTICS – FORECASTING AND EVALUATING CAUSES OF VARIATION IN DEMAND

  • An Overview of Regression Analysis
  • Advantages and disadvantages
  • Application in estimating effects of promotions, pricing, advertising, and other program actions

NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING – FORECASTING OVER LONGER TIME PERIODS WITH GREATER UNKNOWNS

  • Challenges of New Product Forecasting
  • Product lifecycle structure and estimation
  • Qualitative forecasting methods
  • Overview of Quantitative and Qualitative forecasting methods
  • Expected error and accuracy
author
Eric Wilson, CPF
Director of Thought Leadership
Institute of Business Forecasting & Planning
Eric is the Director of Thought Leadership at the IBF and a predictive analytics and business planning innovator, author, and speaker. Prior to this he worked as the Director of Demand Planning at Escalade Sports, Director of Demand Planning at Berry Plastics, and Director of Demand Planning & S&OP at Tempur Sealy International. In 2016, he received the Excellence in Business Forecasting & Planning award from the IBF. Eric is a visionary in his field, a frequent speaker and panelist for many executive forums and professional conferences, and has written numerous articles in publications such as The Journal of Business Forecasting and APICS Magazine. He is also the author of the books 'Predictive Analytics For Business Forecasting' and 'Cultural Cycles'.