Long Term Pharmaceutical Forecasting: IMS Health's Experience

LONG TERM PHARMACEUTICAL FORECASTING: IMS HEALTH’S EXPERIENCE By Patrick Connor, Carl Alldus, Carlo Ciapparelli, and Liz Kirby In the changing dynamics of the pharmaceutical industry, statistical models alone are not sufficient for long-term forecasting … rules that regulate a market vary from one country to another … many unprecedented events occur which are not captured by quantitative techniques. In a dynamic business environment, the ability to anticipate change and to accurately identify and model market trends is vital in developing a viable and successful strategy for the future. The nature of the pharmaceutical industry provides a particularly challenging environment in which to forecast. Pharmaceutical markets and products behave in vastly different ways to those in other industries. Demand for these products is based on entirely different consumer motivation. The rules, which regulate a market in one country, can be vastly different in another. Even the way in which drugs are paid for varies from country to country and can be the responsibility of the consumer, the government, insurance companies or some combination of the three. All of these factors must be fully ...