An Executive's Guide to Econometric Forecasting
Forecasting & Planning
by Al & C. L. Jain Migliaro

Part I: The Basics

  • Some Practical Aspects of Econometric Forecasting
  • The National Econometric Model--A Layman's Guide
  • A Company Econometric Model--A Layman's Guide
  • The Five Econometric Theories Underlying Econometric Models
  • ABC of Econometric Forecasting


Part II: Dealing With Structural Changes

  • Structural Changes-- An Overview
  • Ways to Detect and Correct Structural Changes
  • Coping with Structural Changes--The Integrated Industry Model
  • When Prices Affect Demand, It's Time to Change Model
  • A Way to Keep Up with a Shifting Market Place


Part III: Improving Regression Based Models

  • Five Ways to Improve Regression Based Forecasts
  • Ingredients of a Good Regression Based Model
  • Some Tips for Improving Regression Based Model


Part IV: The Model Builders and Their Models

  • A Quick Glance at Four Econometric Models
  • The Chase Model
  • The DRI Model
  • The Wharton Model
  • The Kent Model
  • A Nobel Laureate Looks to the Future of Econometric Models


Part V: Evaluation and Use of Models

  • What Econometric Models Can Do and Cannot Do
  • Six Questions to Ask Forecasters, and How to Use the Answers
  • How to Evaluate Econometric Forecasts
  • How Union Carbide Uses Macroeconomic Forecasts
  • Econometric vs. Survey Forecasts


Part VI: Simulation

  • How Monetary Policy Affects National and Industry Forecasts
  • Interest Rate Forecasting


Part VII: Econometric Service Bureaus

  • A Guide to Selecting an Econometric Service Bureau


Part VIII: Regional Models

  • Regional Forecasts--How are They Prepared?
  • Determining the Impact of New Business on Local Economy


Part IX: Leading Economic Indicators

  • Leading Economic Indicators Can Be Misleading
  • Are the Leading Economic Indicators Really Leading?


Part X: The Long Wave

  • The Long Wave Cycle


Part XI

  • System Dynamics
    • System Dynamics vs. Econometric Models
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