Business Forecasting: Best Practices Conference April 24 & 25 1997
Workshop Manual
by etc Et al

WORKSHOP I

"New Product Forecasting"

The New Product Forecasting Workshop will be divided into three parts. The first hour will be a discussion on using logistic regression to determine probabilities of purchase and anticipated market share. The second hour will be devoted to the development of diffusion models using logistic and Gompertz diffusion curves along with factors underlying their construction. The final hour will be a practical example of taking the forecast process from start to finish. This example includes the actual estimation of a logistic model from survey data, simulating the impact of various price offerings on market share, and highlighting where marketing efforts should be directed across the planning horizon. Special focus will be centered around easy to understand concepts in both marketing and forecasting.

Director of Modeling

(Conference Co-Chairperson)

EQUIFAX DECISION SYSTEMS

WORKSHOP II

"Fundamentals of Econometric Modeling and Forecasting"

This workshop is designed to provide insights into the development and use of econometric models for business analysts. Emphasis is placed on the construction of structural (econometric) models, tests of hypotheses, use of key diagnostics in model evaluations, and details of forecast evaluation. An outline of the topics to be covered is as follows: Getting Started, Considerations in Model Development, Tests of Hypotheses, Key Diagnostics (Serial Correlation, Collinearity, Influence Points), Distributed Lags, Simultaneous and Seemingly Unrelated Models, and Forecast Evaluation. Examples with actual data sets will be used to solidify understanding.

Professor

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

WORKSHOP III

"Designing a Forecasting System: From Concept to Delivery"

This three hour workshop will work through the design and development of an enterprize forecasting system. It could alternatively be titled "Statistics Are Irrelevant" because the emphasis will be surrounding the forecast engine with the functions businesses require today. In three major sections, the workshop will illustrate 1) the functional management requirements, 2) the supporting architecture required, and 3) the broad delivery capabilities of an enterprize forecasting system.

Chief Scientist

MCI SYSTEMHOUSE

Project Manager, Sales Forecasting

INFORMATION ADVANTAGE, INC.

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