Business Forecasting: Best Practices Conference October 27 & 28 2003
Workshop Manual
by etc Et al


"How to Forecast New-Product Success Early—with Implications for Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG)”

How would you like to be able to predict the success (or failure) of a new consumer product in just a few weeks of its introduction to the market, even with very little data? In this workshop we will discuss the diffusion model as applied to a new product. This is a novel technique in the area of new product forecasting based on the theory that successful products create clumps of repeat buyers who share positive experiences by word of mouth. The final product of this technique is the probability of a new product’s success or failure in the market. After explaining the main concept behind the model we will demonstrate the technique’s applications on real-life new product introductions. We will then open the discussion on advantages and obstacles for the technique’s usability within forecasting processes for a CPG company. The workshop does not require any prior training in statistics.

You will learn:

Ø A new technique to predict success/failure of a new consumer product at the early stage of its introduction.

ØReal-life examples of the diffusion model demonstrating prediction of a new CPG product launch.

ØThe limitations on applicability of diffusion model.

Strategic Modeling Specialist

Industry Forecasting Associate



“Designing and Implementing Successful Sales & Operations Planning (S&OP)”

This workshop explodes the myth that sales and operations planning and forecasting (S&OP) are luxuries—too sophisticated and expensive for most companies, but nice if you can afford them. In fact, this practical session will show you, step by step, how to design and implement a successful, low-budget S&OP process from the ground up, based on the Furman Foods experience. As executive management at Furman Foods recognized early in their supply-chain implementation, no company can grow as fast or succeed as well without solid S&OP. With neither a big budget nor significant resources to dedicate to an additional project, Furman implemented effective S&OP quickly and successfully. The company today is one of the largest family-owned tomato processors in the eastern United States.

You will learn:

ØHow to design an S&OP planning process that drives significant results, and how to implement it quickly throughout your organization.

ØHow to leverage existing organizational meetings and capabilities to support the S&OP planning process.

ØHow to leverage demand-planning capabilities to drive support for this process.

Marketing Mgr.


Solution Architect



“Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, & Replenishment: (CPFR)”

Why consider CPFR at all? The short answer: to optimize communication and reduce costs across the supply chain. The longer answer: When collaborative teams reach consensus and are measuring and monitoring key metrics to facilitate improved forecast accuracy, both suppliers and customers will appreciate savings and efficiencies. This workshop walks you through the development and internal structure of a customer/supplier collaborative forecasting model, from which customer to begin with and what metrics you will need to develop and measure to ongoing processes and checks, and the first steps toward an S&OP model. With communication as the key, as you will see, the development of a collaborative forecasting team brings the right business partners together to ensure all parties are strategically and tactically aligned.

You will learn:

ØHow to develop a CPFR model internally/externally.

ØHow to forecast diverse business models, from established businesses to companies whose every item requires a new-product launch.

ØHow to smooth out new-product launches while managing your supply chain.

Director of Forecasting


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